Tyler Cowen shared his reasons why he thinks AI take-off, really LLM dissemination through society will be slow:
Why I think AI take-off is relatively slow I’ve touched on this before in AI/LLM Diminishing Returns, but this has more reasons and more detail.
Lots of economic concepts I don’t grok.
I asked for a summary via deepseek:
The author discusses the potential economic impact of AI, emphasizing that while AI has significant capabilities, its integration into the economy will face numerous challenges. These include slow adoption in inefficient sectors like government, human bottlenecks (e.g., regulatory constraints), and the O-Ring model, where human limitations may hinder AI’s effectiveness. Historically, new technologies take time to diffuse, and GDP growth tends to remain stable around 2%, suggesting AI’s impact will be gradual. The author estimates AI might boost growth by 0.5% annually, leading to significant long-term changes but not immediate, noticeable shifts. Market prices also do not indicate rapid transformation. Overall, the author remains optimistic about AI’s potential but cautious about its near-term economic effects.
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